Cycling on a May afternoon

To take items that people have ordered from our shop to the post office, I make the 3 km round trip several times a week on a cargo bike. There are always lots of other people on bikes all around me as I make my journey. Yesterday I took a camera. See below for photos of streets in the suburbs of a typical small Dutch city on a typical May afternoon:

Just around the corner from home, a bridge built to keep cars off the cycle-route

Children ride their own bikes on a route which leads to the city centre

A route used by many secondary school students to ride home to villages South West of Assen

Bicycle road becomes cycle path

Bicycle road along the canal

All age groups represented

Don't spill your drink. Negotiating a roundabout in Assen.

These photos illustrate the usual story. Cyclists in this country not only are safe, but they also feel safe. This is a place where everyone can and does cycle. This is possible because cycling in the Netherlands does not look nor feel like an extreme sport, unless you want it to. Being segregated from cars virtually 100% of the time makes this possible.

Average commute lengths in Toronto, Canada

Someone recently posted a comment on one of the posts on this blog in which he asserted that an average commute in Toronto was of the order of 25 km - 50 km each way.

Like any extraordinary claim, this immediately raised a flag. Average commutes in other places are much shorter than this, and it seemed so unlikely that Toronto should have commutes which were so much longer than everywhere else on earth. I looked it up and found a very interesting website about commuting statistics in Canada.

It turns out that Toronto does indeed have the longest commutes in Canada, but the average length is just 9.2 km. This is much shorter than suggested in the comment. The national average is 7.2 km, which is much the same figure as you'll find anywhere in the world.

The same website also reveals that for the whole of Canada, 37.8% of commutes are over a distance of 5 km or less.

Five km is a distance very easily covered by bike, but is that how Canadians make their short journeys ? It turns out that they do not. Ottawa is the leading large city in Canada for both walking and cycling, yet walking accounts for just 7.5% of commutes and cycling for just 2%.

So if distances are not the problem, why do Canadians not use bicycles when their journey distances are short ?

The reasons are the same in Canada as in every other country where few people cycle. The conditions that (potential) cyclists face are simply not conducive to cycling. There is little specifically designed infrastructure and cycling is considered to be like an extreme sport.

Those who choose to cycle in Toronto and across Canada are "road warriors". i.e. they are members of that demographic who are most easy to convince to ride, largely young adults, predominantly male and without dependents. There is not the same wide range of demographic groups as you get with a successful and established cycling culture. As with many other cities around the world, some pockets of Toronto have a higher cycling modal share than others due to specific demographics, but the overall rate of cycling is low. Sadly, the mayor of the city has also recently been taking part in a well publicized "war on bikes" - another thing which makes the background such that cycling is unlikely to flourish.

Distance is an easy reason to give for why the cycling modal share is low, but just as in other places where this excuse is made, a little investigation shows that distances are not the problem in Toronto. In fact, none of the popular reasons given for low cycling modal shares ever really add up. Rather, for cycling to become popular, a good degree of subjective safety is needed, and cycling must be associated with a high degree of convenience and safety. That is the biggest difference between the Netherlands and other countries. We have many examples of what works.

It's the same story in other countries where claims are made that distances are "too long", including the USA. However, the reasons are the same too. Where there is inadequate subjective and social safety, few people cycle. Read previous posts about Canada for some of the reasons why.

Preserving cycle routes despite road works (Road Works vs. the Dutch Cyclist part 2)

It's nearly two years since my last roundup of videos showing how road works don't inhibit cycling in the Netherlands, and here are two more videos showing different examples of the same thing.

The principle remains the same: It is extremely important that cycle routes not only are kept open, but also retain a high degree of subjective safety, when there are road works. If this is not done then there is a good chance that people will be put off cycling, and if they are put off then they may never return to cycling.

The first example is from here in Assen. This is a secondary route into the canal, on the other side of the canal from the primary route. a bicycle road which we've covered several times before. Even though this is a secondary route, and the detour to the primary route is fairly short, this route has been kept open for cyclists at the expense of drivers:



We saw the second example on our holiday last week. This is not in Assen, but in Apeldoorn, a town about 120 km south of here. In this case, a large junction was being reconstructed and the road surface had been completely removed. Drivers travelling in this direction have a long detour while the works take place. However, while there is necessarily a slight detour for cyclists due to the works, it's been kept to the shortest distance possible while preserving safe crossing points away from the works themselves. The reconstruction will include improvements to the cycling infrastructure, but for now it is necessary to cross the road and ride on temporary surfaces:



Cycling is inherently quite fragile. If it seems unsafe then people are less likely to take part.

If routes to school don't seem safe then parents won't let their children cycle to school (something which almost all Dutch children do). If older people are expected to develop extra strength to deal with riding in unpleasant conditions, then they also would be scared away.

This is why it is necessary to go to some lengths to keep cycling as an attractive and preferable alternative to driving or taking public transport even when works are necessary on cycle-paths or roads.

Only if cycling retains attractiveness and convenience for all can everyone continue to cycle. It is necessary for cycling to have this wide appeal in order to have a modal share which is greater than anywhere else in the world.

Countries with an ambition to grow their cycling modal share need to understand the importance of this. Cycling infrastructure needs to be seamless and simple to use for all ages and abilities, and cycling needs to be supported everywhere, not just where it is easy to do so. Only that way does cycling become a choice for the majority. Unless this is the case, cycling remains a minority pursuit.

See also see the previous installment of Road Works vs. the Dutch Cyclist, which included four other videos like these.


The second video in this post shows a small part of a 130 km journey home that we made together by bike last Sunday. As is usual when cycling in the Netherlands, this distance was covered mostly on cycle-paths but also on some stretches of roads with little traffic. Apart from cobbled surfaces through a few villages, leading in one case to another redirection. Not once on our journey did we experience off-putting conditions for cycling, and nor did we expect to find such conditions. Comprehensive infrastructure works not only for short journeys, but also for longer journeys.

Challenges to growth in cycling in the Netherlands

One graph can never show the multitude of factors behind the cycling modal share of a nation.

In this post, I'll point out how the usual chart which shows how cycling has grown in the Netherlands since the 1970s hides some major demographic factors which influence cycling, not all of them positive.

In addition, we've recently been told that for the first time in nearly ten years, cyclist deaths rose in the Netherlands last year compared with the year before. What's this all about, and is it somehow related to the modal share ? Read on...

First challenge: Immigration
Each year, the Netherlands loses about 30000 more people each year due to emigration than arrive as new immigrants. Many people who emigrate were born overseas and are returning to their land of birth, but also many Dutch people emigrate. This number, you'll notice, is smaller than that of births vs. deaths.

Nevertheless, by 2010, this exchange of people between countries resulted in 11% of people living in the Netherlands having been born in other countries. Because all other countries have a lower cycling modal share than the Netherlands, this of course implies that immigrants were born in countries where it is normal to cycle less than in the Netherlands.

Immigrants to the Netherlands try hard to integrate well with the local population and this includes their cycling habits. Immigrants living in the Netherlands cycle a lot more than they would in their own country, but on average they do so less than the native Dutch. Clearly, though, we can't state that growth in cycling is due to immigration.

Second challenge: Aging
Between the 1970s and now, the population of the Netherlands grew from 13 million to 16.5 million people. As we've seen, this is not due to immigration. It is also not due to a high birth rate. As is normal for developed nations, the Total Fertility Rate of the Netherlands (how many children are born on average to each woman) has been less than 2 for some time. In the Netherlands, the TFR has been less than two since 1973.

Births still outnumber deaths in the Netherlands by almost 50000 people per year, and this is what has lead to population growth. Deaths are lagging behind births because of the increase in life expectancy and resulting increase in the average age of the population. Men can now expect to live 7 years longer than in the early 1970s and women 5 years longer. Women still live slightly longer on average than do men.

Meeting these challenges
Neither older people nor recent immigrants from countries with lower cycling rates are the easiest people to convince to cycle.

Immigrants are encouraged to cycle. A successful initiative called Fiets Vriendinnen ("Cycling Girlfriends") is the only organisation that I'm aware of which cycle training for adults. Specifically, they offer cycle training and support for women new to the Netherlands, performing a useful function of helping people to integrate into Dutch society.

However, something else has happened which many people may find surprising. Elderly people in the Netherlands now cycle nearly three times as much as they did in the 1980s. It is the rise in the number of retired people cycling which has driven the growth in electric bicycle sales in the Netherlands.

A group of older people who passed us a couple of Sunday afternoons ago. It is not at all unusual to see groups of retired people cycling for pleasure in the countryside.

Other growth has come from specific areas. For instance, cycling to railway stations, where literally hundreds of thousands of extra cycle parking spaces have been built in an attempt to keep up with growth in usage in the last few years (40% of train passengers now arrive at railway stations by bicycle). Many Dutch towns have seen increases in cycling alongside improvements to infrastructure. This is true of the capital, Amsterdam, of the top cycling city in the Netherlands, Groningen, and also of the small town of Assen, where we live.

What about that rise in transport related deaths ?
Obviously any rise in deaths is something that has to be taken seriously. First some context. Overall, roads and cycle-paths in the Netherlands are amongst the safest in the world. They are much safer than they were in the early 1970s.

The improvement in safety have come in large part from following the principles of sustainable safety. Different modes are separated, keeping cyclists away from the danger from motorized vehicles even when you might not think this was happening.

While 2011 was a slight increase over 2010, this is clearly a
downward trend over time. It is not an imaginary trend.

Sadly, for the first time in several years, 2011 saw the number of deaths on Dutch roads increase. This has seen alarming commentary from some quarters about how the roads are becoming more dangerous, but I do not believe this to be the case. Rather, this is a bump on a graph which still depicts a downward trend. The rise was small, 3.3%, and 2011 was still safer than 2009. Perhaps the same sorts of comments concerning a "rise" were made when this last happened, in 2003.

In 2011, there were 661 deaths compared with 640 in 2010 (these figures are for all road users, not just cyclists). December 2011 was a particularly deadly month with 81 people losing their lives in that month alone. Without this unusual one month peak, the figures could have been lower than for 2010.

There is always "noise" in figures of this nature. It's important not to take too much notice of year on year changes as they can be so misleading. While one cannot make any prediction based on the graph, it looks more like the continuation of a steady downward trend than the beginning of an increasing trend, and we should note that the December figures which particularly made a difference last year are likely to be due to particularly unhelpful weather.

Demographics of road casualties
Of the 661 deaths last year, 40% or 269 were of people over the age of 65. Nearly 1 in five, 126 people, were aged over 80. This is a reflection of how active older people remain the Netherlands and also of how vulnerable older people can be in crashes which might cause less serious injuries in younger people.

We see the same if we look just at cycling casualties.

Over 65s cycle around 12% of the total kilometres cycled each year in the Netherlands. However, almost 2/3rds of the cyclists who died in the Netherlands last year were of people aged over 65.

In total, 200 cyclists died in the Netherlands last year, a rise of 38 over the year before. This is quite a sharp rise in one year. It compares with 185 in 2009, which makes for a less dramatic change. It is still part of a downward trend, and the Netherlands remains the safest country in the world for cyclists.

Why are older people falling victim more often ?
It is an unfortunate fact that as you get older, you also become more delicate. Injuries which might cause nothing more than a little discomfort when you are young can cause a broken bone when you are older. Those which might have resulted in a broken bone can result in death.

The rise in electric bicycles has been blamed for older people suffering more injuries and deaths. One study claims that while electric bikes are not much different in safety to non assisted bikes for younger people, there is a relationship between an assisted bike and a higher rate of injury amongst older people. Such bicycles are sold almost exclusively to retired people, and for this age-group they result in being able to ride faster and further than before, without improving the rider's reaction time or strength.

However, it would appear that the main reason why older people are falling victim more often is that they are cycling more often. Between 2000 and 2010, the number of kilometres ridden each year by over 65s more than doubled. Over 65s now cycle nearly three times so much as they did in the 1980s.

In the Netherlands, cycling suffers from the "Golf effect". Just as regular gentle exercise by cycling extends life-expectancy, golf has been shown to do the same. However, a surprisingly high number of people die of heart attacks when playing golf. It's not the game that kills them, as golf has few risks, however the combination of an aged demographic and that playing golf can take quite a long time means that there is a fair risk that regular players will die when they are playing golf. Many older Dutch people spend a considerable amount of time cycling, and the same will be observed.

None of this is new
In 2005, a study showed that the number of visits to hospital by older cyclists had risen by 55% between 2005 and 2009. The total distance cycled by this group had also risen by 50% over the same period.

In 2010, a study showed that elderly cyclists ran 3.2 times the risk of injury than younger cyclists, and that this was due not to having more crashes, but due to the relative fragility of older people. It also showed that 10% of total cycled kilometres in the Netherlands are ridden by the over 65s, and a link was shown (again) between improvements to cycling infrastructure, an increased rate of cycling, and lower risks for all cyclists.

What about the future ?

Average number of bike rides per day for Dutch
population separated into different age groups

It is expected that the aging population will eventually reduce the cycling modal share because older people in the Netherlands cycle less than younger people.

In 2007, a study suggested that aging of the population could be expected to slowly reduce the rate of cycling in the Netherlands. It also predicted a rise in serious bicycle crashes of 10% over 20 years for much the reasons that we have seen start to occur. This study also showed that immigration was thought unlikely to have a very large effect because the number of immigrants remains small.

That same study includes an interesting table which shows the percentage of cycle trips by over 65s in 2005 for each local government area, compared to what it is expected to be by 2025. In Assen, for example, 12% of cycle journeys were made by over 65s in 2005, and this is expected to grow to 16% of cycle journeys being made by over 65s in 2025. This is about average for the whole country.

Of course, the Netherlands isn't standing still. A new organisation, the National Investigation into Cycling Safety has begun to work on improving future safety for cyclists in the Netherlands.

It is important that standards for cycling infrastructure continue to improve. Only with improvements in standards can the cycling modal share be preserved despite the challenges of demographic change.

All three types of safety are important.

About comparing sensible figures
Last week, British politicians compared Dutch and British cycle safety figures in rather a confusing and perhaps even deceitful manner by referring only to the absolute number of deaths in both countries.

It is of course true that the Netherlands has a higher rate of cycling injury per hundred thousand people. However, this is because while everyone cycles in the Netherlands, and as we see above, this covers a very wide range of demographic groups, only a minority cycle in the UK and they're largely young adult males.

Comparing per km cycled, even though the Dutch cyclists include far higher levels of more vulnerable groups (not only older people, but also children and people with disabilities), the figures are very much better for the Netherlands than the UK, even taking into account the increase last year. Several people blogged about this, but I refer you to "(Drawing) rings around the world" for accurate figures.

Someone quipped that by the same logic as used by the British Transport Ministers, Switzerland could perhaps learn a lot from the UK's good record on skiing safety, and it's a valid comparison.

Any British politician who wants to know what the difference really is between cycling in the Netherlands and cycling in the UK only has to ask us to find out. We do tours specifically for this reason, but not one British politician has yet come to see for themselves.

Investigations into the cause of the rise in injuries and deaths continue. If the person who made the quip about skiing safety reads this, let me know and I'll link to you.

Local traffic safety figures

A few days back, the local TV news covered the rate of road deaths in our province. They gave figures for the total of all traffic deaths, including drivers, cyclists and pedestrians.

In 2003, there were 46 transport related deaths in the province, but this has been dropping. 26 died in 2011.

In Assen, the capital of Drenthe, and three other council areas within the province, there were no traffic deaths last year. The highest figure was in Midden Drenthe, which has a relatively large number of busy roads.

The local government spokesman in the video explains that the reason for the reduction in deaths is that the roads have been re-engineered to reduce conflicts and remove danger, though of course he also says that behaviour of drivers is important.

Improving the infrastructure to make the roads more self-explanatory and to reduce conflict is an established way to improve safety. These are the principles of Sustainable Safety in action.

Sustainable safety not only improves conditions for cycling, but benefits all road users. This universality makes sustainable safety a good thing to campaign for in other countries as well.

Drenthe is the least densely populated province of the Netherlands. Just under half a million people spread across 2600 square kms - 190 people per square km. This density is lower than five US states and less than half that of England.

Complaints about priority, and police dogs vs. bikes

After last week's blog post including a video from local TV which illustrated the efforts taken to ensure that the cycle-paths of Drenthe are well maintained, here's another view. There are protests about the plans to renew a particular junction, which is now showing its age.

The introduction to the video says "Drenthe is a real cycling province. Cycle-paths go everywhere, and when the weather's fine it's extremely pleasant to ride around the countryside. However, according to work-group Kop van Drenthe, there is still more to be done to make cycle-paths better".

At the moment, cyclists have priority over motorists across one road at this old junction, but if the plans of the local government are implemented, cyclists will lose this advantage. The protesters have been invited to have a meeting with the local government so that an agreeable compromise can be reached:



One of the reasons why the infrastructure continues to improve in the Netherlands is that people continue to complain about what they have and continue to strive to make it better. There is no complacency and no celebration of having "finished" anything. To stop making improvements would mean starting to slide backwards. Therefore, progress is continual.

This is the junction which is the subject of the video. Street-view shows the North-South cycle-path on the west side as having been dug up. This happened two years ago when this cycle-path was (massively) improved in quality. The cycle-path on the east of this road (South-North) will be improved with the work on the junction:


Grotere kaart weergeven


I thought readers might also enjoy this video, which is coverage of a competition for police dogs. At 25 seconds in you'll see how police dogs are trained to handle those who try to flee from the police by bicycle:



In another example of a protest, last year, I wrote about complaints in Groningen which helped to prevent that city from winning the "cycle city of the year" competition.

Britain: More training but less cycling

On the back of an announcement of more money for child cycle training, the Department for Transport in the UK has released a report titled "Cycling to School - A review of school census and Bikeability report data". Sadly, this confirms what I wrote last November about how an emphasis on Bikeability and Cycling Proficiency have failed British cycling.

The new figures shows again how the rates of children cycling to school remain extraordinarily low in the UK. The change over the period of 2006 to 2011 is given as -0.01% for 5-10 year olds and +0.06% for 11-15 year olds. This is also presented as a change of 0% for all ages combined.

I have no doubt at all that those who train child cyclists in the UK do so with the best possible motives. However, effort shouldn't be confused with success. Sadly, the effort of the people doing the training is being squandered on something which looks good in press releases ("More money for school cycle training" !) but doesn't actually make any real difference. While British children are being trained in large numbers, this does not lead to them cycling. Conditions on the streets of the UK simply remain too unpleasant and too dangerous for more than a very small proportion of parents to allow their children to cycle.

There are also new figures for the whole population's cycling activity. These show that the average of 16 bicycle trips per person per year in 2006 has changed to an average of 15 bicycle trips per person per year in 2010.

Both these sets of figures come from a time when many people in the UK have spoken of growth in cycling. While Growth is often reported in the UK, and I'm not the only one to have noticed that such reports are often not based in fact.

This is not real progress. Real growth can be measured and would appear in these figures. All that we've been able to see for many years in the UK is a change in the least significant digit of a small number, and these new figures again show a continuation of the same statistical noise as I wrote about in 2010.

For comparison, the Dutch population makes on average about 0.8 trips by bike per day, which is equivalent to about 220 trips per person per year. As you see, it's not just children who rarely cycle in the UK, but adults too find the conditions for cycling unpleasant. In the UK, "cyclists" continue to cycle, while the majority of the population continues to think it is too dangerous to cycle.

When even many campaigners in Britain continue not to ask for enough and don't aim at the right people to make a real difference, it's hardly surprising that the government doesn't do so either. To know what is really going on, campaigners need to become less easily satisfied and more critical of claims that cycling is growing (I'm not the only one who says this).

If you look at the figures for cycling over time, it is very easy to see that the UK has not developed a set of policies which have lead to a real increase. It is important to recognize this truth, not to imagine that a non-existant cycling revolution is taking place, not to believe deliberately confusing hype and not to look in the wrong direction for solutions. Rather, it is important to acknowledge the facts for what they are. Yes, it's unfortunate that cycling has stagnated at a very low level. However, by acknowledging this fact, there is a base to work from. What's more, by accepting properly gathered statistics, there is a yard-stick against which any future progress can be measured.

For cycling to grow, real change is needed. An emphasis on "soft measures" such as training has failed in the past and will continue to fail in the future. Cycle training and marketing of cycling are but a small part of what is required. These measures do not work in isolation from changing the streets for the simple reason that they do not solve the problems that people face when they try to cycle.

There will be no real increase in cycling in Britain until real funding is provided, excuses stop being made, and the country starts to copy the best parts of the best examples without misunderstanding the intent. This is the only way in which the conditions which can result in real mass cycling can be created.

More on exaggeration and broken promises. And as for cycling to school, even pre-schoolers can be seen riding their own bikes to day-care in the Netherlands. From an average age of 8.6, very nearly every Dutch child rides independently. See also the Cyclists in the City blog for another view of the same figures, while Joe Dunckley provides a humourous take by pointing out that "press releases announcing the annual funding for cycling training that they've been funding for decades now outnumber actual cyclists".